Now, what disturbed me is that the year over year increase was about 72% larger in the July, 2009 to July 2010 period (0.606%) than in the July, 2008 to July 2009 period (0.352%). This is quite disturbing in that the July 2009 to July 2010 period is one of subdued economic activity in much of the so-called developed world (to be fair, much of the previous period could also be described in this way).
Here's a brief graph of world GDP from 2005 to mid - 2010:
Note that while world GDP declined for the first period noted in the CO2 concentration above and rose at about 3.3% for the second, the dip in GDP is not mirrored by a reduction in slope of the graph of atmospheric CO2 concentration for the period. I don't know whether the absence of a decrease in rate of growth of CO2 concentration is due to a statistical fluke, measurement error, volcanic eruption, or the increased use of coal to provide primary energy in emerging economies - China and India in particular. But an increased growth rate of atmospheric CO2 concentration without an increase in the rate of growth of economic activity is a disturbing data point.
3 comments:
There's a surprising amount of year-to-year variability which is not well-understood. Both ocean circulation and large biotic reservoirs are suspect; emissions are not. This may help.
Thanks Michael. If analyzed from a simplistic point of view (atmospheric carbon is a function of emissions, emissions are a function of economic activity and carbon intensity) then the failure is to show a temporary decrease in the slope of atmospheric carbon as a function of time.
So, I don't know if it's increasing carbon intensity with the rise of China and India or of decreasing effectiveness of carbon sinks. It seems like it would be good to know though.
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